blogue atlântico

Zogby: Ron Paul Will Surprise You

Rudy Giuliani: I believe Rudy had a flawed strategy right from the outset. The whole idea was that his name recognition and national numbers would turn him into the inevitable candidate and that he needn’t spend time in or worry about Iowa or New Hampshire because his national numbers would just automatically lift him up. If for some reason they didn’t, he would be a sure shot to win in Florida, and then proceed into the big states on February 5, where he would be automatically have the money on hand to be able to compete in the television markets of New York and California and umpteen other states.

I always thought that was a mistake, because Iowa is extremely important, and a loss there, particularly an embarrassing loss, would produce several days of negative stories. The primary system is all about momentum and I think everyone is beginning to see that. He can still win the nomination, but even he has begun to see that he might end up in fourth- or even fifth-place in Iowa, third- or fourth-place in New Hampshire. Now, he’s even down in Florida, because someone else - Mike Huckabee - has gained momentum in Iowa and built on it nationally.